I am shortly going to introduce a ratings system for the tips that I post up. I go on about value all of the time and the truth is, some bets are simply more valuable than others, or in layman’s terms, some bets are just better.
Back to my old toin coss example encountered earlier.
If I toss my coin and somebody offers me evens then what should I do?
Answer. Nothing. There is no value here, you won’t win or lose in the long run you will just waste your time (unless you are the stick it all on red and close your eyes type.)
If I toss my coin and somebody offers me 11/10 then what should I do?
Answer. Bet something. You don’t bet everything of course because it is still a coin toss, the difference is that you are getting better than coin toss odds.
If I toss my coin and somebody offers me 5/4 then what should I do?
Answer. Bet a bit more than something. Your odds are better, although the likelihood that you will win the bet remains the same…BUT…in the long run you will win and lose an equal number of bets, winning more money than you lose.
The point here, is that betting theory dictates that the better the value, the more you bet, but because a losing streak can and will hit anybody, you never go overboard. Now I will explain Kelly theory in detail at some point, but the above should be enough to understand why I am going to put a ratings system in place.
So, some of my tips are better value than others, although all are value. To do well in the long term then all tips should be followed but you should stake more on the better value ones.
For the purposes of profit and loss for the blog, my tips will be bet as follows:
1* Bet – £10
2* Bet – £15
3* Bet – £20
4* Bet – £25
5* Bet – £30
Of course you should only bet what you are comfortable with, please don’t feel the need to follow my exact stakes, they are just there as a guide. Adjust as is necessary.