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Squeezing value from interrelated markets

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I often talk about value and that the key to winning on sports betting in the long term is the ability to find it.

One trick that can be used to squeeze out every last drop of value is to consider interrelated markets.  Bookmakers offer a huge range of betting markets on each sporting event, some of which are identical to one another but may offer differing odds.  Take the simple example of backing a football team to win their match:

188bet are offering the following odds on the Man United v Tottenham game this weekend (28 October 2017)

Manchester United 6/5 (2.2)

Draw 47/20 (3.35)

Tottenham 5/2 (3.5)

Now there are a couple of markets that they also offer that would substitute the above very nicely.

A bet on an asian handicap of -0.5 is identical to a bet on that team to win. Placing a bet on Manchester -0.5 is the same as betting on Manchester to win…in both cases should Manchester win the match, your bet is a winner.

Secondly, the half-time/full-time market gives us a chance to bet on the following markets: Manchester/Manchester, Draw/Manchester and Tottenham/Manchester. Covering all 3 of these is once again identical to betting on Manchester to win and oddschecker have a very useful tool known as a ‘dutching calculator’ which allows you to calculate the stake needed to bet on each option.

So what do our odds at 188bet tell us?

  1. An asian handicap of -0.5 offers odds of 2.21, so better than betting on the match market
  2. Covering the half-time/full-time markets offer combined odds of 2.02 so worse than betting on the match market

This is just one example of which there are dozens and dozens in football

Other sports may provide similar opportunities.

In tennis, betting on a player to win 2-0 and 2-1 is identical to betting on that player to win (assuming this is not a men’s grand slam or davis cup match!) .

In rugby, betting on a team with a +0.5 asian handicap is identical to betting on that team to either win or draw. Additionally, a +0.5 asian handicap, is identical to a +1 3 way handicap. Paddy Power are offering the following handicaps on the Wales – Australia rugby game on 11 November 2017:

Asian handicap: Wales +0.5 v Australia 10/11 (1.91)

3 way handicap: Wales +1 v Australia 5/6 (1.83)

Betting $100 on the former rather than the latter would offer an increase in profit of $8 for betting on exactly the same outcome.

So next time you place a bet, just stop and think – are there any interrelated odds that offer up better numbers? It only takes a minute to check and in the long run will make a difference.

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